Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
https://preview.redd.it/8t2d8ujwzgc11.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd13c50961d8839b7553a489743ea3c8d478306dsubmitted by Scarlet_TIO to u/Scarlet_TIO [link] [comments]
Here is a summary in Q&A format for the impromptu session Paul, Jim and Roy did in an unofficial trade.io supporters group on 26 July 2018 which should allay most if not all fears and questions.
Compliance & Documents Needed For Withdrawals:
First and foremost, we're not fortune tellers, but from our experience with other regulated companies in similar asset classes to crypto, like FX, CFD's, etc. regulation is coming and in many places already here as we've all seen.
We're choosing to get out in front of this, so that when it does happen and the companies that are being completely negligent in their compliance and regulatory duties are getting pinched, we're in a good position. With that said, though, we need to be cognizant of competition and not be too strict so that we can't compete with the cowboy exchanges in the near term.
With that said, let's tackle the KYC issue upon withdrawal first.
The process for withdrawals is very simple, and currently there is no tiered structure...meaning its the same process regardless if you want to withdrawal 1 satoshi or 1K BTC. This is in place for many reasons, as it will be easier to start onboarding clients once our fiat to crypto module is in place, and also grandfathering people into the LP.
When withdrawing you'll need to fill out Form A if you are an individual, and Form A is simply saying the info you're providing is true and accurate and you're not a US citizen. Very standard.
Then you provide an ID and Proof of Residence.
NOTHING needs to be certified and NOTHING needs to be translated to English, as we have a fully staffed multilingual compliance department. Apologies if the instructions were confusing, as we're in the process of making some tweaks to make it less confusing.
KYC/Withdrawal process is the minimum possible but still following regulatory guidelines.
Q: R documents provided confidential ?
A: 100% and securely stored.
Q : Restricted countries?
A : Only countries that are restricted are OFAC countries and the dangerous country known as the US.
Q: also i wanted to confirm, as u have already partnered with selfkey , will there be a personal wallet for each user at your end??? or a combine wallet ?? will there be any fee the e walllet service
A: Selfkey won't take place for some time, so put that to the side for now.
Q : So maybe you shall delete current FAQ in profile section? Simply because it's too scary for all.
A : We'll def beef it up to make it much clearer.
Q: Before moving, Any different form for companies withdrawing ? And kyc
A: Yes, good point, company withdrawals have a diff set of docs, that can be found within the guidelines, But still to my knowledge, company docs need not be certified or translated to English either.
Q : Any different form for companies withdrawing ?
A : Yes, good point, company withdrawals have a diff set of docs, that can be found within the guidelines
But still to my knowledge, company docs need not be certified or translated to English either.
Q : TIO price
A : For better or worse, we all keep an eye on price of TIO. The employees and staff have TIO just like the TIOnauts....so we all have the same interests here.
With that in mind, please remember there are nearly 90M TIO in circulation. The volume today (or most days for that matter) is 200K or a quarter of 1% of TIO in circulation.
So while its natural to see, say a 5% decrease in price, you can't ignore this is taking place on literally no volume and off of trade.io exchange. The price is being dictated by bulls**t exchanges like BitForex which is complete hocus pocus.
In order for TIO to get to the BNB levels we need liquidity and participants. We fully expect once we're up and running in full force on our exchange and TIO is limited to that, we'll be in good shape, in our opinion.
Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell TIO, but rather pointing out some factual information.
You wouldn't be able to sell 25K without cracking the price. In order for TIO to get to the BNB levels you need liquidity and participants. We fully expect once we're up and running in full force on our exchange and TIO is limited to that, we'll be in good shape.
Q : Exchange
A : It's not perfect, far from it. However, to say its not light years better than the beta which didn't even have working market orders at the time, and a fraction of features that are out now is simply inaccurate. I'll be happy to post what the demo beta looked like at launch. Obviously this isn't something to be proud of, but again, I do want to stick up for our devs just a little bit here as I know they are busting their butts.
With that said, any remaining mods are being tended to around the clock and I'm personally updating everyone every 12 hours. For example, there were issues with saving presets, data issues, etc. have been rectified. Next on the list is BCH & USDT. Once bugs are fixed, then enhancements come that we've been tracking and logging.
Dev's are tidying up any residual issues from launch, like BCH & USDT. Dev's btw, are more than 14 (as I saw that number somewhere), we now have over 30 devs around the globe. So rest assured there is not 1 dev in the basement making Pinnochio 🙂
On the to immediate do list after the tidying:
Q : Why do we see trades on inactive assets ?
A : We have algos firing in tiny trades to create charts for now. Until there is adequate flow, this is necessary to create clean looking charts.
Q : So LP is technically already sort of functioning then?
A : Sort of, its a bit more complicated than that.
Q : When traded on only one exchange same prob. How can we say it s not being manipulated by the exchange itself
Non tionauts might think that way..
A : Manipulate usually conotates a negative, not sure why having TIO only on trade.io would lead to a negative.
Q : Won't ppl added in 2 batch miss LP start?]
Tied in to this. Some people will surely complain about the 30 day no fee incentive. Claiming (and rightly so) they did not avail themselves of it since they were restricted
A : We're def not committed to 30 days only, as you rightly said, it won't be fair, if we only open it up to say 5K people in the first 30 days.
Q : when will there be bots placing and filling order book
A : Once there is a larger number of users on the platform.
Q : Set deadlines, dates for things to get done
A : I will refrain from setting deadlines, as we haven't exactly been the greatest at meeting deadlines.
Q : Adding additional users
A : For adding additional users, its going to be a shoot first ask questions later tactic. So as we add, emails will go out, and we will alert the community. Its in everyones best interest that we allow the 20k+ on the waiting list and open it up to the masses ASAP though for 101 reasons. We're all on the same page there gang.
Q : Will you have a public list on which features are being worked on? (Not deadlines, just a list for poeple to know what to expect next)
A : I will have them in my twice daily updates (Paul).
Q : LP
A : As I have said earlier this week, we have been working closely with regulators to modify the LP which will maximize it's utility AND benefit to TIO hodlers. The current structure was based on the regulatory guidelines during our ICO and is expected to change in the very near future. (Roy)
We have been working with regulators and jurisdictions with the goal of making the LP TIO only. As alluded to before, things are going well and if they continue this is the direction of the LP.
Q : will there be a way to calculate taxes, or is it still soon to have an answer to that?
A : Taxes are the responsibility of the LP participant. there are dozens of jurisdictions which have their own unique tax laws and requirements which would be an incredible undertaking to address for all our users. We have been approached with a few technology providers who are working with accounting firms to address this very issue. should we discover a convenient solution for our clients then of course we integrate a solution that is conveinent for all our clients to calculate/estimate their tax liabilities for their respective juridictions.
Q : Can you give us estimated revenues on ICO consulting business?
A : It is important to understand the ICO Consulting pricing model and revenue structure for this. Our consulting services require a small upfront engagement fee to onboard the client. The majority of the revenue is not collected or recognized until the ICO client has completed their ICO as the pricing model is performanced based much of the time on amount of funds raised and tokens issued. which means, revenue from consulting engagement is delayed 3-4 months until the ICO has ended for that consulting client.
Q : Provided tiers remain as is, the price of TIO will most probably plateu at some point (I imagine pretty quickly). What's the plan with the tiers? Will these be dynamic at some point?
A : Tiers will change as price of TIO changes, also with regards to TIO price plateauing, pls keep in mind that while the LP is one major utilization of TIO, there are others to keep TIO in demand. The LP will not be the sole dictator of price/demand of TIO.
Q : With higher and higher TIO price the likelyhood is that less and less people will be interested to buy as "the train would have left the station" Imagine when TIO is $1, you'd need 2,500$ for every tier. Imagine if it reaches 10$
A : Again, the tier structure will remain "flexible" as to allow for the most participants possible while at the same type not diluting. The original plan to adjust the tier is based on the price and volume of TIO. We are contiuously monitoring this to make the LP fair and benficial to our community.
Q : In my opinion, the model of having the LP with multiple currencies (not only TIO) is a much better one, as participants will have multiple diversified assets portofolio
A : It's subjective really. I believe TIO only LP will boost the token much better. That's what we believe as well. Having someone contribute 1K BTC and getting profits from the LP doesn't help TIO at all, it only helps their pockets.
Q : when do new version of calculator appear?
A : Once the terms of service have been finalized and the official announcemnet has been made.
Q : Will the daily profits automatically be included in the next (successive) days' calculations? Or will they be deposited in a separate wallet outside the LP
A : Profit from today will be put in your wallet pro rata tomorrow, and so on.
Q: please tell what will happen to leftover (for the person having teir lvl less than 100)
A: trade.io keeps it. If the participants don't maximize their LP contribtutions that is their discretion. we are not forcing the min teir structure to be 25K as this would not be fair. We structured the LP to be fair for the masses and understand that not everyone can maximize their contribution. However, if LP participants do not max out their teir level we are a for profit company and any leftovers will help us spearhead additional initives and partnerships to increase the utility of TIO and benefit the community. There are direct and indirect benefits of the LP here.
Q: Will the LP be available before the end of September?
A: I refuse to provide a deadline...don't make me....:) We stink at hitting deadlines, its a tough biz in tech. We're busting our butts though to get the LP up and running.
Q : well, just imagined that dynamic model and it seems that in that model rich become richer and poor get poorer. Am i wrong?
A : With the flexibility for us to change the tiers we can control this better so that doesn't happen. The last thing we want is to go against our core values and placate to the whales. That's not why we created the LP. the LP was created to redistribute wealth in an easy an accessible way to the masses. What benefit does it give our community if only the rich become richer?
Q : will there be an auto-reinvest option?
A : Yes, 100%, like a money market sweep type mechanism.
Q : On window for LP withdrawal
A : You can opt out at any time, and it will be automatically removed at the next "roll over" similar to if you have traded FX with swaps.
Q : The auto-reinvest will probably hit the tier limit right (unless you're in the top tier which is currently limitless). What happens then?
A : You'll be automatically bumped to the next tier
Q : will top tier be capped on revenues shared on the start, or this will be a possibility for the future?
A : Top tier is capped in terms of % but not in terms of quantity, is that what you're asking? There has always been a cap to the %....its never been open ended. we are potentially paying out 55% of the LP, in actuality, not 50
Q : but we talked earlier that there will be an option to re-invest.. now given that the payouts will be done in other crypto.. will that option be able to convert let's say BTC into TIo and add to the LP automatically ?? if that's the case, then we''ll automatically move to the next tier.. set and forget
A : We can have a bot that auto buys TIO, we can add that later to reinvest. A later feature would be the concept of "dust" to do this reinvestment. .
Q : Will the daily profits automatically be included in the next (successive) days' calculations? Or will they be deposited in a separate wallet IP plan using dust later?
A : They would need to be reinvested to move up. initially, this would have to be a bit manual, but we are planning a DRIP plan using dust later.
Q : Non-TIO assets and caps
A : For non TIO, there needs to be caps so people dont do 2500 TIO and US$1 million. When and if we allow non-TIO in LP. AND non-TIO will not have same multipliers, but as an enhancement. We are not trying to fuck you or game you in any way. Over time, we want to enable people to make money loaning BTC, ETH, USD, etc so other can go short. Returns on that will not be like TIO. We launch with TIO only, later we present the plan for other assets. On we have something we all like, we can move ahead.
Q : LP top tier caps
A : There will be a cap on top tier as well, above where our current largest outside investors are.
Q : so Jim.. shifting gears a bit here, can you talk to us about the regulatory side of things.. where do we stand? what're the future plans with regulators? will TIO be listed as a utility token or a security? anything you can share with us in terms of regluations would be great.. I know there's a lot of confusion with the SEC right now, but any thoughts or undergoing discussions?
A : All cryptos have different classifications in different jurisdictions. We are in Switzerland, where we are a utility. US might treat us diff, as they see everything as a security. Malta has another view. This applies to ALL cryptos, not just TIO, every jurisdiction is different. To say any token is a security or utility is not accurate. Dealing with customers for exchanges is a different regulatory issue.
On the exchange regulatory side, we are working on multiple jurisdictions. HK, US, Malta, etc. In Malta, we have co setup already. Just waiting for app process to open.
Q : Is there any chance that leverage trading will be added to the exchange?
A : yes, on the priority list.
Q : Once we lock our TIOs to the LP, adn after a few months we want to remove them (loss or profit does not matter) do we get back teh same ammount of TIOs even if the price of TIO increases?
Lest say I put 25,000 TIO, with TIO price of $1, adn wehn I decide to take them off the price of TIO is 2$, do I still take 25,000 TIO back or 12,500 TIO ?
A : Yes #TIO in = #TIO out unless the LP has a massive loss that wipes out our blanace sheet and TIO reserve which stands in front of you.
Conclusion : We are going back to whipping the slaves in the salt mines.
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